Football
Premier League title race: Why three teams are pulling ahead
Goal differential, expected points and squad depth all point to a fascinating three-way fight for the crown.
Sarah Whittaker•November 10, 2025•5 min read
Goal differential, expected points and squad depth all point to a fascinating three-way fight for the crown.
As the Premier League hits its winter stride, three clubs have separated themselves from the chasing pack. The reasons are not just on the scoreboard — they're in the underlying numbers.
Squad depth has emerged as the decisive factor. Last season, the title was won by the team that suffered fewest injuries. This year, the smart money tracks rotation rates: how often coaches can rest key players without losing matches.
The expected goals (xG) data tells a similar story. Top three teams are creating chances at a rate that suggests they're not just good — they're sustainably good. xG over 2.0 per match is exceptional. All three are above that line.
What about the chasing pack? Their problems are structural. Defensive transitions, set-piece vulnerability, and aging spines are visible in the data weeks before they show on the table.
Watch the next six weeks closely. If the leaders extend their gap, this becomes a procession. If the chasing pack closes in, we have a classic.
How is the Premier League title decided?** The team with the most points after 38 games wins. If teams are level on points, goal difference separates them, then goals scored, then head-to-head results.
What is xG and why does it matter for the title race?** Expected Goals (xG) measures the quality of chances created and conceded. Teams consistently outperforming their xG are likely regressing to the mean; those underperforming may improve. It is one of the best predictors of future performance.
Has a team ever won the Premier League after being bottom at Christmas?** No team has won the title from below mid-table at Christmas. The record recovery to win the title was Leicester City in 2015-16 — they were not bottom, but were 5,000-to-1 outsiders.
How many points does it typically take to win the Premier League?** Over the 38-game season, the winning total has ranged from 75 points (in competitive seasons) to 100 points (Manchester City's record in 2017-18). The average winning total is around 86-90 points.
Sarah Whittaker is a Premier League correspondent and data analyst specializing in tactical and statistical analysis.
